Thursday, March 15, 2012

Opinions Not Backed by Money Updated Again

Strange that I am updating this post for a third time and nothing really has changed, but the fact that nothing has changed is incredibly interesting to me.  Since it is an update, I will not duplicate the explanation, so please read the last version Opinions Not Backed by Money Are Not That Believable--Updated and with R.  The basic conclusion is that we are in a bull market and AAII surveys are bullish, but nobody is willing to bet money on a good stock market.

From TimelyPortfolio

Data in a Google Doc ( sourced from AAII- The American Association of Individual Investors and ICI.

R code (not even worth putting in GIST):



#using ggplot example from
p <- ggplot(data=aaii_ici, aes(x = AAIIBULL-AAIIBEAR, y = runSum(aaii_ici[,4],3), colour = Range, shape = Range, label = Range))
p1 <- p + geom_point() + scale_y_continuous(limits = c(-200000, 200000),formatter=comma) + geom_hline(yintercept=0) + geom_vline(xintercept=0) + stat_smooth(method="lm", se=FALSE) + ylab("ICI Equity Rolling 3-mo Sum") + opts(title = "ICI Equity Flows by AAII Survey")

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