Update on JGBs versus USTs

Given the recent selloff in the Yen, I thought now would be a good time to update my favorite chart from Intended or Unintended Consequences.

For a true currency death spiral, rates need to move up rather than down.  It appears we are long way from that.

Long-time readers will know that I have been keenly interested in the Yen for the entire history of this blog http://timelyportfolio.blogspot.com/search?q=yen.

Code for this post: https://gist.github.com/timelyportfolio/5665790

If…then in Japan

If Japan starts to spiral out of control, then what do they do? A spiral would be a sudden move higher in JGB rates with a simultaneous crash in the Japanese Yen. Their response would be to try to slow the positive feedback loop through external intervention. Fortunately for Japan, they have amassed a significant reserve position of 1.2 trillion compared to a US reserve position of 135 billion, so they do have some firepower.

require(latticeExtra)
require(quantmod)

japanReserves <- getSymbols("TRESEGJPM052N", src = "FRED", 
    auto.assign = FALSE)
asTheEconomist(xyplot(japanReserves, scales = list(y = list(rot = 1)), 
    main = "Japan Foreign Reserves excluding Gold"))

From TimelyPortfolio

Based on data from the US Treasury, 1.1 trillion of the 1.2 trillion of Japanese foreign reserves are US Treasury bonds. If Japan decides (is forced) to liquidate, the only thing they have to liquidate are US Treasury bonds. Who will buy if they sell? What happens next?

# get data from US Treasury for top 10 foreign
# holders of US treasuries
foreignUSTreas <- read.csv("http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfhhis01.csv", 
    skip = 4, nrows = 13, stringsAsFactors = FALSE)
top10 <- data.frame(foreignUSTreas[4:13, 1:2])
colnames(top10) <- c("Country", "Value")
top10$Value <- as.numeric(top10$Value)
top10$Country <- factor(top10$Country, levels = top10$Country[order(top10$Value)])

barchart(Country ~ Value, data = top10, origin = 0, 
    xlab = "Value (in $Billions)", main = "Foreign Holders of US Treasuries - Top 10", 
    scales = list(y = list(alternating = 3)), par.settings = theEconomist.theme(box = "transparent"), 
    lattice.options = theEconomist.opts())

From TimelyPortfolio

For those comparing the Federal Reserve H4 data to the US Treasury TIC data, this is a very good summary http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/ticfaq2.aspx#q10.

Even More JGB Yield Charts with R lattice

See the last post for all the details. I just could not help creating a couple more.

Variations on Favorite Plot - Time Series Line of JGB Yields by Maturity

p2 <- xyplot(value ~ date | indexname, data = jgb.melt, 
    type = "l", layout = c(length(unique(jgb.melt$indexname)), 
        1), panel = function(x, y, ...) {
        panel.abline(h = c(min(y), max(y)))
        panel.xyplot(x = x, y = y, ...)
        panel.text(x = x[length(x)/2], y = max(y), 
            labels = levels(jgb.melt$indexname)[panel.number()], 
            cex = 0.7, pos = 3)
    }, scales = list(x = list(tck = c(1, 0), alternating = 1), 
        y = list(tck = c(1, 0), lwd = c(0, 1))), strip = FALSE, 
    par.settings = list(axis.line = list(col = 0)), 
    xlab = NULL, ylab = "Yield", main = "JGB Yields by Maturity Since Jan 2012")
p2 <- p2 + layer(panel.abline(h = pretty(jgb.melt$value), 
    lty = 3))
p2

From TimelyPortfolio

jgb.xts.diff <- jgb.xts["2012::", ] - matrix(rep(jgb.xts["2012::", 
    ][1, ], NROW(jgb.xts["2012::", ])), ncol = NCOL(jgb.xts), 
    byrow = TRUE)
jgb.diff.melt <- xtsMelt(jgb.xts.diff)
jgb.diff.melt$date <- as.Date(jgb.diff.melt$date)
jgb.diff.melt$value <- as.numeric(jgb.diff.melt$value)
jgb.diff.melt$indexname <- factor(jgb.diff.melt$indexname, 
    levels = colnames(jgb.xts))

p4 <- xyplot(value ~ date | indexname, data = jgb.diff.melt, 
    type = "h")

update(p2, ylim = c(min(jgb.diff.melt$value), max(jgb.melt$value) + 
    0.5)) + p4

From TimelyPortfolio

update(p2, ylim = c(min(jgb.diff.melt$value), max(jgb.melt$value) + 
    0.5), par.settings = list(axis.line = list(col = "gray70"))) + 
    update(p4, panel = function(x, y, col, ...) {
        # do color scale from red(negative) to
        # blue(positive)
        cc.palette <- colorRampPalette(c(brewer.pal("Reds", 
            n = 9)[7], "white", brewer.pal("Blues", 
            n = 9)[7]))
        cc.levpalette <- cc.palette(20)
        cc.levels <- level.colors(y, at = do.breaks(c(-0.3, 
            0.3), 20), col.regions = cc.levpalette)
        panel.xyplot(x = x, y = y, col = cc.levels, 
            ...)
    })

From TimelyPortfolio

p5 <- horizonplot(value ~ date | indexname, data = jgb.diff.melt, 
    layout = c(1, length(unique(jgb.diff.melt$indexname))), 
    scales = list(x = list(tck = c(1, 0))), xlab = NULL, 
    ylab = NULL)

p5

From TimelyPortfolio

update(p2, ylim = c(0, max(jgb.melt$value) + 0.5), 
    panel = panel.xyplot) + p5 + update(p2, ylim = c(0, 
    max(jgb.melt$value)))

From TimelyPortfolio

Variations on Yield Curve Evolution with Opacity Color Scale

# add alpha to colors
addalpha <- function(alpha = 180, cols) {
    rgbcomp <- col2rgb(cols)
    rgbcomp[4] <- alpha
    return(rgb(rgbcomp[1], rgbcomp[2], rgbcomp[3], 
        rgbcomp[4], maxColorValue = 255))
}

p3 <- xyplot(value ~ indexname, group = date, data = jgb.melt, 
    type = "l", lwd = 2, col = sapply(400/(as.numeric(Sys.Date() - 
        jgb.melt$date) + 1), FUN = addalpha, cols = brewer.pal("Blues", 
        n = 9)[7]), main = "JGB Yield Curve Evolution Since Jan 2012")

p3 <- update(asTheEconomist(p3), scales = list(x = list(cex = 0.7))) + 
    layer(panel.text(x = length(levels(jgb.melt$indexname)), 
        y = 0.15, label = "source: Japanese Ministry of Finance", 
        col = "gray70", font = 3, cex = 0.8, adj = 1))

# make point rather than line
update(p3, type = "p")

From TimelyPortfolio

# make point with just most current curve as line
update(p3, type = "p") + xyplot(value ~ indexname, 
    data = jgb.melt[which(jgb.melt$date == max(jgb.melt$date)), 
        ], type = "l", col = brewer.pal("Blues", n = 9)[7])

From TimelyPortfolio

Replicate Me with code at Gist

Japan - JGB Yields–More Lattice Charts

This blog is littered with posts about Japan. In one sentence, I think Japan presents opportunity and is a very interesting real-time test of much of my macro thinking. Proper visualization is absolutely essential for me to understand all of the dynamics. The R packages lattice and the new rCharts give me the power to see. I thought some of my recent lattice charts might help or interest some folks.

Get and Transform the Data

# get Japan yield data from the Ministry of
# Finance Japan data goes back to 1974

require(xts)
# require(clickme)
require(latticeExtra)

url <- "http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/"
filenames <- paste("jgbcme", c("", "_2010", "_2000-2009", 
    "_1990-1999", "_1980-1989", "_1974-1979"), ".csv", 
    sep = "")

# load all data and combine into one jgb
# data.frame
jgb <- read.csv(paste(url, filenames[1], sep = ""), 
    stringsAsFactors = FALSE)
for (i in 2:length(filenames)) {
    jgb <- rbind(jgb, read.csv(paste(url, "/historical/", 
        filenames[i], sep = ""), stringsAsFactors = FALSE))
}

# now clean up the jgb data.frame to make a jgb
# xts
jgb.xts <- as.xts(data.matrix(jgb[, 2:NCOL(jgb)]), 
    order.by = as.Date(jgb[, 1]))
colnames(jgb.xts) <- paste0(gsub("X", "JGB", colnames(jgb.xts)), 
    "Y")

# get Yen from the Fed
# getSymbols('DEXJPUS',src='FRED')

xtsMelt <- function(data) {
    require(reshape2)

    # translate xts to time series to json with date
    # and data for this behavior will be more generic
    # than the original data will not be transformed,
    # so template.rmd will be changed to reflect


    # convert to data frame
    data.df <- data.frame(cbind(format(index(data), 
        "%Y-%m-%d"), coredata(data)))
    colnames(data.df)[1] = "date"
    data.melt <- melt(data.df, id.vars = 1, stringsAsFactors = FALSE)
    colnames(data.melt) <- c("date", "indexname", "value")
    # remove periods from indexnames to prevent
    # javascript confusion these . usually come from
    # spaces in the colnames when melted
    data.melt[, "indexname"] <- apply(matrix(data.melt[, 
        "indexname"]), 2, gsub, pattern = "[.]", replacement = "")
    return(data.melt)
    # return(df2json(na.omit(data.melt)))

}

jgb.melt <- xtsMelt(jgb.xts["2012::", ])
jgb.melt$date <- as.Date(jgb.melt$date)
jgb.melt$value <- as.numeric(jgb.melt$value)
jgb.melt$indexname <- factor(jgb.melt$indexname, levels = colnames(jgb.xts))

Favorite Plot - Time Series Line of JGB Yields by Maturity

p2 <- xyplot(value ~ date | indexname, data = jgb.melt, 
    type = "l", layout = c(length(unique(jgb.melt$indexname)), 
        1), panel = function(x, y, ...) {
        panel.abline(h = c(min(y), max(y)))
        panel.xyplot(x = x, y = y, ...)
        panel.text(x = x[length(x)/2], y = max(y), 
            labels = levels(jgb.melt$indexname)[panel.number()], 
            cex = 0.7, pos = 3)
    }, scales = list(x = list(tck = c(1, 0), alternating = 1), 
        y = list(tck = c(1, 0), lwd = c(0, 1))), strip = FALSE, 
    par.settings = list(axis.line = list(col = 0)), 
    xlab = NULL, ylab = "Yield", main = "JGB Yields by Maturity Since Jan 2012")
p2 + layer(panel.abline(h = pretty(jgb.melt$value), 
    lty = 3))

From TimelyPortfolio

Good Chart but Not a Favorite

As you can tell, I did not spend a lot of time formatting this one.

p1 <- xyplot(value ~ date | indexname, data = jgb.melt, 
    type = "l")
p1

From TimelyPortfolio

Another Favorite - Yield Curve Evolution with Opacity Color Scale

# add alpha to colors
addalpha <- function(alpha = 180, cols) {
    rgbcomp <- col2rgb(cols)
    rgbcomp[4] <- alpha
    return(rgb(rgbcomp[1], rgbcomp[2], rgbcomp[3], 
        rgbcomp[4], maxColorValue = 255))
}

p3 <- xyplot(value ~ indexname, group = date, data = jgb.melt, 
    type = "l", lwd = 2, col = sapply(255/(as.numeric(Sys.Date() - 
        jgb.melt$date) + 1), FUN = addalpha, cols = brewer.pal("Blues", 
        n = 9)[7]), main = "JGB Yield Curve Evolution Since Jan 2012")

update(asTheEconomist(p3), scales = list(x = list(cex = 0.7))) + 
    layer(panel.text(x = length(levels(jgb.melt$indexname)), 
        y = 0.15, label = "source: Japanese Ministry of Finance", 
        col = "gray70", font = 3, cex = 0.8, adj = 1))

From TimelyPortfolio

Replicate Me

code at Gist