Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Since My Barron’s Debut

Jack Willoughby in Barron’s November 1, 2010 summarized their Big Money Poll in an article titled “Bears Beware.”  Commenters on Twitter and blogs everywhere cited this as a perfect “Cover Story” indicator to exit the stock market.  This article was also my Barron’s debut

"Bonds aren't the best place to make money," says Kenton Russell, a portfolio manager for Sterne Agee. "They are severely overvalued. The only way a bond investment works at current yields is if we're in a depression. Some ugly things [would] have to come true."

Russell recommends high-yielding, big-cap stocks issued by companies with strong balance sheets. The most bullish Big Money participant, he predicts the Dow will reach 14,000 by mid-2011, with the S&P rising to 1,300 and the Nasdaq to 2,500. Investors have abandoned risk "precisely at the time they should be taking risks," he says.

I hope I am this right every time I appear in Barron’s as seen in the chart below

via StockCharts.com

Unfortunately though, I think the move in stocks is almost done just as my targets are reached 5 months early, so I’m not sure it counts.  I would love to see the poll now.  My guess is it would be much different with many more aggressive bulls and with me as a bear.

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