Thorough study of investment success has convinced me that investors must prepare for the worst but also must prepare for the best. Recent volatility from the financial panic of 2007-2009 and the recent mini-crisis of the Flash Crash and PIIGS has led everyone to prepare for the worst. Unfortunately, if good things happen, most investors do not have the exposure to benefit from economic/financial stabilization and expansion. Opportunity is potentially being squandered and long term goals are being forgotten. No one can forecast at a rate of even 70%, so if you are wrong, what are you sacrificing? I think the long term consequences of risk avoidance could be severe .